By Jim Spencer
SpencerSpeaks.com
August 23, 2007
The dilemma for Democrats in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District boils down to these choices:
Would they rather have a candidate that 84 percent of voters recognize, but half of those voters dislike?
Would they rather have a person who only 10 percent of voters recognize, but who has no bankruptcy or bad debt in her background?
Or would they rather have a convert from the opposition party who ran a spoiler campaign that may have cost them the last election?
On Wednesday, U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar chose a squeaky clean no-name.
Standing outside the state Capitol in Denver, Salazar endorsed his former regional director Betsy Markey for Congress.
“She is,†said Salazar, “a role model for the kind of person who should run for office. She will be the point of the spear for new leaders in Colorado.â€
This spear point will need a lot of sharpening to beat Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in the 4th CD.
But Markey says she is better positioned than the Dems’ last candidate, former state Rep. Angie Paccione. Paccione lost by only 2.5 percentage points to Musgrave in a metaphorical mud-bath in 2006. But Paccione can’t win a rematch, Markey insisted, because Paccione’s failure to pay her student loans and a personal bankruptcy will continue to provide Republicans with the slop they need to smear her.
“The Republicans will simply recycle the attack ads from 2006,†Markey said. “She can’t win.â€
Paccione says the same thing about Markey.
“It cost me millions in the last campaign to get name recognition,†Paccione said. “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did a poll recently. I had 84 percent name recognition. Eric Eidsness (the ex-Republican spoiler independent candidate from 2006 now running in the 2008 Democratic primary) had 13 percent. Betsy had 10 percent name recognition.â€
At least those 10 percent didn’t view her unfavorably, Markey fired back.
Paccione “may have 84 percent name recognition,†Markey said. “But 43 percent of that is negative and only 34 percent is positive. That’s just hard to overcome.â€
Salazar didn’t want to say anything negative about Paccione. But he pointed out that Markey has nothing in her history that would let Musgrave and her supporters run the kind of negative campaign they mounted against Paccione.
“From everything I know about her background, she’s been a success most of her life,†said Salazar. “Betsy can run a positive campaign based on hope and optimism.â€
Markey will need plenty of both to best a three-term incumbent.
Still, Salazar praised Markey’s work as a businesswoman in Larimer County and her knowledge of the 4th District, much of which she covered in her job as his regional director. The senator called Markey “a solution seeker.â€
“We need leaders who don’t divide,†Salazar said. “We don’t have that in the 4th CD right now.â€
Paccione claimed no alarm at Salazar’s endorsement of someone else, a year before the Democratic primary.
“If your boss didn’t endorse you, that would be the bigger surprise,†Paccione said. “I looked at a lot of races where people lost the first time and won the second. I have a viable chance with a second chance. I look at it like this: It probably takes one time to get name recognition and to get the base.â€
Markey said her name recognition is about what Bill Ritter’s was when he entered the governor’s race, which he won.
Musgrave has held off Democratic challengers by increasingly narrow margins in each of her three runs for re-election. But she is changing her persona from right wing gay-basher to constituent server faster than you can say same-sex marriage.
“Marilyn Musgrave has seen the writing on the wall,†Markey said. “But her votes haven’t changed. She supported the president on Iraq and voted against the State Children’s Health Insurance Program and the farm bill.â€
Be that as it may, Musgrave is still the incumbent. She has moderated her persona, if not her votes. And she has been re-elected three times. That may pose the biggest problem for Democrats in the 4th Congressional District.
Before they take a chance on an unpopular or unknown quantity, people often vote for what they have come to tolerate.
Copyright 2007 by Jim Spencer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
9 users commented in " To Know 4th CD Dems May Not Be To Love Them "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackLet’s just hope that whoever’s elected has a bit more respect for the 4th Amendment than Senator Salazar himself has shown lately.
As a former resident of the 4th CD, I can vouch for the fact that it ain’t easy, being a Democrat in knee-jerk Republican country. Eric Eidsness personifies the stealth Republican in other clothing, and frankly, the criticisms of Markey and Paccione of each other have some validity on each side. Betsy is a party insider, not widely known outside of it, and Angie carries some political baggage with her. I don’t know if Republicans will recycle their attack ads against Angie again, but they certainly could. Sadly, I fear the more time Betsy and Angie spend going after each other, the easier it will be for the loathsome Ms. Musgrave to win another term.
Despite Angie’s bad credit record, she didn’t lose to Musgrave by very much. I think most people can identify with college debt. Even President Bush commented, upon the graduation of his twins, that he wouldn’t have to pay the tuition anymore.
It’s unlikely the ex-GOP candidate will win the nomination.
Markey will be able to draw GOP voters, since she is endorsed by Sen. Salazar, who at times has behaved like a Republican.
The Democrats have a major weapon against Musgrave. Paccione’s bad debt: old hat.
Musgrave’s picture giving the President a peck on the cheek: priceless.
This is nothing more than one political patronage for a former co-worker. Salazar is no Dem, and often sides with Republicans, including “his good friends” Gonzo and Lieberman. Paccione doesn’t need Salazar’s endorsement. Run the candidate that has the best possibility of beating this right wing Musgrave. Repubs will always use smear tactics and Paccione’s are minimal. What does Markey have in her closet?
Polotics…..sad,sad,sad, and getting more so.
Somehow, Salazar’s endorsement of a former staffer of his doesn’t impress me, considering his record since going to the Senate. His doublecross of Jeffco citizens near Lookout Mountain to allow broadcasters to preempt local zoning makes him a disgrace — Republican or Democrat — a disgrace, nonetheless. Now that we know what Salazar is, why would we care who he endorses?
I have known Betsy since we moved to Fort Collins and she is a special person. She ran a very tight and well organized County office for the first few years we were here. She was always at ease - on top of organizational issues - and calm in the midst of many “storms”. Democrats, by their very nature, do not march to one drummer and she managed to communicate with all of them.
Just because someone endorses you doesn’t mean you endorse his votes. I communicate with Senator Salazar on a regular (he might say too regular) basis - expressing my wishes and later disappointments with his votes. He appears to listen to me - and he has been known to change his mind. I’ll give you one example - he introduced Gonzo before the Judicial committee as they both shared a similar position in State governments and he knew him. But as he learned, he didn’t know him. And, has come to be one of his critics.
I was disappointed with his (Salazar’s) support of Lieberman’s candadacy for US Senate as an “Independent” (we all know now what that means). He indicated that when he came to the Senate, Lieberman was “assigned to be my mentor”.
But - really folks - this election is not about Salazar - it is about who do we want representing the 04th District of Colorado. And, certainly Marilyn Musgrave should go. She has been wrong for Colorado and wrong for our nation. And, I believe that Betsy Markey would share 99.9% of my values and vote for families, children, farmers, educators, health insurance for all, people who want peace, restoring the Constitution, etc.
“At least those 10 percent didn’t view her unfavorably, Markey fired back.” And how do we know that? I just heard Markey’s name for the first time, and my initial opinion of her is unfavorable.
We’ll see how the campaign goes, but I think Paccione’s bankruptcy is irrelevant, and currently I am planning to support her.
Ken “sell-us-out” also supports Gonzo and his buddy Lieberman. Anyone Salazar supports tells me to look elsewhere. I don’t even live in the district but I contribute to Paccione. Musgrave must go and not be replaced with a Salazar endorsed Republican light crony.
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